India is carefully watching the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s (3BHA) rebel offensive in Myanmar. New Delhi is increasingly concerned about security, especially in Manipur and Mizoram, bordering northern Myanmar. The 3BHA, consisting of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA), launched the offensive in Myanmar’s northern Shan State on October 27, named “Operation 1027.” Reports say the attack has taken over more than 135 military positions.
Refugees Flee Amid Recent Fighting
Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, is thought to have lost control of key border crossings with China and Rihkhawdar, a town near Mizoram. Armed groups have also brought the conflict to Kayah State bordering Thailand, the Sagaing region, and Chin State, which borders India.
The fighting forced thousands of Myanmar nationals, including dozens of soldiers, to seek shelter in Mizoram last week. Subsequently, the troops were flown to another border crossing and sent back to Myanmar.
India has called for an end to the violence. “We reiterate our call for the return of peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi told reporters. “As a result of the fighting in Rihkhawdar area in Chin State, opposite Zokhawthar in Mizoram on the India-Myanmar border, there has been movement of Myanmar nationals to the Indian side. We are deeply concerned with such incidents close to our border,” Bagchi said.
Experts and academics who have been closely monitoring the situation believe any further escalation in hostilities could be problematic given that Mizoram shares a 510-kilometre-long porous border with Myanmar.
Avinash Paliwal, who teaches at SOAS University in London, said that Indian authorities have adopted a dual defensive approach of continuing to support the junta to avoid dislocation of their broader interests in Myanmar, while beefing up cross-border checks.
“The situation in Manipur has direct links to Myanmar and it is unlikely that New Delhi will undertake strategic revisions in its approach towards its eastern neighbor in the near term,” Paliwal, who specialises in South Asian strategic affairs, told DW. “If the pushback against the Naypyidaw succeeds in toppling the junta, which is not a given at this point in time, it will require India to build equities within the resistance ranks on terms set by the latter,” added Paliwal.
India’s Deputy National Security Advisor, Vikram Misri, attended an October 15 event in Myanmar marking the eighth anniversary of a rebel ceasefire. He urged that the treaty be reinforced to resolve ethnic conflicts.
India has urged an end to the violence, emphasizing the need for peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar, according to Arindam Bagchi, the spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs. Expressing deep concern about movements of Myanmar nationals near the India-Myanmar border, particularly in the Rihkhawdar area in Chin State, Bagchi highlighted the significance of such incidents close to India’s border.
Experts and academics closely monitoring the situation warn that further escalation could be problematic, given the 510-kilometer-long porous border Mizoram shares with Myanmar. Avinash Paliwal, a professor at SOAS University in London, noted that India appears to follow a defensive approach, supporting the junta while reinforcing cross-border checks to protect broader interests in Myanmar. Paliwal emphasized the direct links between the situation in Manipur and Myanmar, suggesting that strategic revisions in India’s approach may not happen soon.
Paliwal added that if resistance against Naypyidaw succeeds, India would need to build equities within the resistance ranks on terms set by the latter. India’s Deputy National Security Advisor, Vikram Misri, attended an October 15 event in Myanmar, advocating for reinforcing a rebel ceasefire treaty to address ethnic conflicts.
Challenges in India’s Continued Relations with Myanmar
Critics argue that the 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) is in disarray post the 2021 coup, leading to a crackdown on dissent and renewed conflicts with some signatories. Despite this, New Delhi has maintained a cooperative relationship with the Myanmar military, referred to as the State Administration Council (SAC), since the conflict’s onset in 2021.
According to a United Nations report in May, Indian government-owned companies and private firms have supplied $51 million worth of arms, dual-use items, and raw materials to the military junta since February 2021. In response to concerns about India’s arms exports, Arindam Bagchi stated, “We have engagement and cooperation with them, a neighbouring country, on various issues. Whatever actions we take are in the light of our interests.”
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, founder and president of Mantraya, an independent research forum, said there are no indications that India’s Ministry of External Affairs is revisiting its policy of standing behind the Myanmar junta.
“Its actions including engaging the junta, supporting it in the past with weapons and training for its officials, and periodically sending high officials to functions organized by the junta, point to the opposite,” D’Souza told DW. “This has happened despite several requests by the parallel National Unity Government to New Delhi to change its pro-junta stance.”
She pointed out that under a rather ambivalent wait-and-watch policy, New Delhi continues to hope that the ongoing rebel onslaught is a temporary phenomenon and that the junta will eventually prevail. “New Delhi is certainly concerned about the spillover of the conflict into the north-eastern states but seems to be pinning its hope on the junta and not the rebels, to minimise this,” added D’Souza.